Tomorrow night could very well conclude the 2020 Dem Primary in Texas House District 148. Let me explain. The first phase of the #TXHD148SpecialElection will be over tomorrow. Then there will be a runoff because with 15 candidates in the race, it is unlikely that a candidate will get 50% plus 1.
There are 12 Dems in the race, 2 GOPers, and 1 independent who used to be a GOPer. Luis La Rotta, who is third on the ballot has the support of the local GOP. On the ballot, political party affiliation is listed. We know from the two previous special elections in SD 6 and HD 145 last December and January, the GOP candidate received the bulk of the GOP votes cast. Martha Fierro received 23% in the SD 6 Special and 25% in the HD 145 Special. According to the current early voting totals data, around 30% or so of votes cast in HD 148 have a GOP voting history. What if La Rotta gets a huge share of that GOP vote and secures a place in the runoff. He would face off with the top Dem vote getter.
Now granted, HD 148 is a Dem district but Dems are not going to take any chances so they will line up and unite behind the Dem in the runoff. The next five weeks or so will see HD 148 Dem voters getting a lot of contact from the Dem candidate. With filing for the Dem Primary beginning next week, the 11 Dems who don’t make the runoff will be hard pressed to file and run again. I guess one or more could file and hope the Dem in the runoffs gets knocked off, but that is not likely.
Filing as a Dem and watch a Dem prevail in the runoff wouldn’t put you in a good position heading into a Dem Primary. It wouldn’t make sense. If it is one Dem and a GOPer in a runoff Tuesday evening, for all practical purposes, the HD 148 Dem Primary is over. Got it?
Of course, if La Rotta or the other GOPer misses the runoff, none of this matters.
You have a better scenario?
The hard copy of the Chron has a front page story on the low voter turnout here in Harris County and H-Town:
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Early-voters-dismayed-by-negative-tenor-of-14806352.php.
In HD 148, early vote turnout is better than 2015 early vote turnout in some Heights precincts and lower than 2015 levels in some non-Heights precincts. Don’t ask me why.
Get your family and friends to vote tomorrow.
That’s all I have to say today.
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