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Archive for September 19th, 2018

It’s Not Over

Our magic number is 7.

How many MLB teams have a run differential of plus 200?

Some Texas GOP leaders are saying it’s over this morning. I am talking about a blue wave in Texas. Here is from the Trib on last night’s Dem debacle in State Senate District 19:

Republican Pete Flores defeated Democrat Pete Gallego on Tuesday night in the special election runoff for Senate District 19, a major upset in a Democratic-friendly seat with implications for the balance of power in the upper chamber.

With all precincts reporting, Flores beat Gallego by 6 percentage points in the race to replace convicted former state Sen. Carlos Uresti, D-San Antonio. Flores had 53 percent of the vote and Gallego 47 percent in unofficial returns.

Gallego conceded to Flores around 9 p.m., according to both campaigns. With the victory, Flores will become the first Hispanic Republican to serve in the Texas Senate.

And this:

Flores was introduced at his victory party by arguably his most crucial supporter: Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. In his remarks, the Senate president held up Flores’ win as evidence that the idea of a “blue wave” in November is overblown and that Hispanic voters have soured on Democrats. (SD-19 stretches from San Antonio’s east side to far West Texas, covering hundreds of miles of the state’s Mexican border in between.)

Flores’ victory grows the Senate GOP majority to 21 members, an important figure as the caucus enters the November elections looking to protect its supermajority with as many as three of its seats in play. Currently Republicans need a three-fifths majority — 19 members — to bring legislation to the floor without Democratic support.

Here is the entire Trib story: https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/18/republican-pete-flores-track-upset-race-democratic-friendly-uresti-sea/.

Here is from the SA Express News:

Christian Archer, Gallego’s campaign strategist, said he was shocked by the results, adding that they weren’t able to generate as much excitement as the Republicans.

“I don’t have any regrets, but I have a lot of disappointment,” Archer said.

Here is the entire Express News take: https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/Polls-close-at-7-p-m-in-Senate-District-19-13239398.php.

Here is Kuffer’s take on SD 19:

Flores defeats Gallego

Sep 19th, 2018

by Charles Kuffner.

1 comment

I don’t even know what to say. This is a filthy result, one that can’t be repaired until 2020. I don’t know what happened, but it was a race we should not have lost. I don’t think one ugly loss invalidates everything else that’s been going on, but it sure is a turd in the punch bowl, and the reaction to it is going to be brutal. Now Dems are going to have to flip a Republican-held Senate seat just to stay even. Just terrible.

UPDATE: Something that occurred to me after I went to bed was that it was unusual for this runoff to be held on a Tuesday, as runoffs are almost always on Saturdays. The effect of having this on a Tuesday is that there were no weekend days for voting – early voting for this was Monday to Friday last week. It’s still a disgrace that Gallego lost, but if you wanted to engineer an election for low turnout, this is how you would do it.

GOP leaders are also pointing to the latest poll that has #BetoForTexas down by nine.

Here is RG’s take: https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/ted-cruz-takes-nine-point-lead-beto-orourke/.

But wait, a poll just came out with #BetoForTexas ahead by two and here is from the Trib:

U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, leads Republican incumbent Ted Cruz by 2 percentage points among likely voters, according to an Ipsos online poll released Wednesday in conjunction with Reuters and the University of Virginia. O’Rourke has been closing the gap over the last several months, but this is the first poll that puts him ahead of Cruz.

Forty-seven percent of likely voters told Reuters they would vote for O’Rourke, while 45 percent said they would cast their ballot for Cruz. Three percent said they would vote for “Other,” and 5 percent said “None.” The margin of error on that portion of the poll was 3.5 percentage points.

A Quinnipiac poll released Tuesday put Cruz 9 percentage points ahead of O’Rourke among likely voters. That poll was based on phone interviews, while the Ipsos poll used an online survey. But it’s trying to predict who will show up on Election Day that shifts the numbers, said Ipsos Vice President Chris Jackson.

Ipsos is trying to gauge political enthusiasm on each side, said Jackson. The poll asked respondents to estimate the likelihood that they’d vote in the midterm elections on a scale from one to 10. “More Democrats are registering at the highest part of the scale, at the 10, than the Republicans,” Jackson said. And that’s what’s interesting, he said, because Republicans usually have the momentum advantage in Texas.

Here it the entire Trib story: https://www.texastribune.org/2018/09/19/beto-orourke-leads-cruz-new-poll-texas-senate-race/?utm_campaign=trib-social&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=7430911185.

First of all, how in the heck did we lose SD 19? What happened? What went wrong?

The Texas Democratic Party said Gov. Greg Abbott stole the election by not calling for a November election. I don’t know about that.

Somebody needs to ‘splain to Commentary what went wrong and no excuses, please.

As far as #BetoForTexas being down by nine, and now up by two, let’s wait until we go through a couple of debates.

It is not over.  Far from over.

The Red Sox have a plus 220 run differential and we have a plus 251 of course.

5 game lead with 11 to go.

 

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