Archive for October 30th, 2014

In Charge

As of yesterday (Oct. 29), 284,362 have Voted Early in Person or mailed in a ballot in Harris County. In 2010, 447,701 Voted Early in Person and by mail. So as of yesterday, we are at 63.5% of the 2010 pre-election day turnout. We had 55,560 total mail ballots returned in 2010, we are at 63,857 as of yesterday.

A quick review of Early Voting locations in Latino neighborhoods STILL has me concerned. Again, maybe some of those folks are now voting by mail and not in person – but still.

A few days ago another Dem door-hanger was dropped off here. Again, it appeared to be designed for African American households. I am just kind of wondering if they checked on my ‘hood’s demographics.

Some local political folks that Commentary respects are kind of wondering about the local Dem effort. A couple are starting to conclude that next Tuesday night isn’t going to be pretty. Some can’t figure out what the strategy is. Some can’t figure out the allocation of resources. None of them are close to those that are making the decisions. Who is in charge?

Since 2000, name the MLB club with the most World Serious titles?

The Texas Observer put out a piece yesterday on state voter turnout. Here are parts:

If Wendy Davis and the rest of the Democratic slate of statewide candidates have any chance of defying the polls, or even doing better than the disastrous (for Dems) year of 2010, they’ll probably need a large number of voters to turn out to the polls. We’ve written this story many, many times: The Achilles’ heel for Texas Democrats is that their voters don’t show up. Texas has some of the worst voter turnout numbers in the nation and that abounds perpetually to the Republicans’ advantage. This election cycle was supposed to start changing that. A year and a half ago, Battleground Texas—the hyped Obama-style grassroots machine—came here promising to launch a multi-year effort at rebuilding the Democratic apparatus largely by expanding the electorate and deepening engagement with neglected communities and constituencies, especially with Latinos.

Well, we’re more than a week into early voting. How are Davis and Battleground Texas doing? It’s probably still too early to reach any definitive conclusions but the tentative answer so far is that turnout does not look all that different from 2010, the last mid-term election and a horrible year for Texas Democrats, when Bill White lost by 13 points to Rick Perry and Republicans won so many seats that they secured a super-majority in the Texas House.

The total number of people voting early barely tops 2010. Despite a bump in registered voters and significant population growth, only about 16,000 more people have voted in the first nine days of early voting this year compared to the last mid-term in 2010.

The conventional wisdom is that’s bad for Democrats, though the Davis campaign says there’s reason for “cautious optimism.”

“Of course higher turnout is generally better,” said Jeff Rotkoff, a Democratic operative who advises Steve and Amber Mostyn, the Houston couple who are among the biggest donors to Texas Democrats. “But counties don’t vote. People do. In Harris County we’re not focused on the overall percentage turnout, but rather on who is voting. And that while it looks like Republicans carried the first week of early voting in person, that we carried the weekend and Monday.”


“The data isn’t 100 percent clear, but it is clear that turnout seems to be lagging,” said Karl-Thomas Musselman, an Austin-based Democratic political consultant, “and I think it’s helping Rs more than Ds.”

I have to agree that lower turnout is not good for Dems. Turnout is always the key for Dem success.

Commentary tweeted thus yesterday:

Marc Campos @MarcCommentary • 2h 2 hours ago
H-Town Mayor loses national PR battle on #AmenSubpoenas and does an about face. #HouNews

There is no other way to spin it. When word of the Amen Subpoenas first broke, The Mayor tweeted that sermons were fair game or something like that. After a ton of blowback, The Mayor deleted the tweet and then said the next day that maybe the subpoenas were a little too broad. She said the subpoenas would be amended.

As she was getting hammered in the media, a couple of times she pointed to stories that in her words got it right. In other words, all the other media reports got it wrong. That certainly didn’t help her out and she kept swinging.

The Chron E-Board nailed her. So did the publisher of The Leader. So did the Channel 2 editorial.

The story went national. Not very many notable politicos stepped up to defend her. The cavalry was nowhere to be found.

Plus, it never looks good when your mailbox starts getting inundated with Bibles.

In the end she lost the national PR debate, surrendered, and did an about-face on the subpoenas.

Bill King had a nice crowd at his book signing last night – a lot of folks that write campaign checks.

Since 2000, the Red Sox (2004, 2007 & 2013) and Giants (2010, 2012 & 2014) have the most World Serious titles of course.

The World Champion Giants visit The Yard for two on May 12 and 13, 2015.

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