Archive for October 23rd, 2014

Bad News Poll

This is a bummer. The latest Texas Tribune poll is a stinker for Dems. I just find it hard to believe just like I find it had to believe the turnout here in Harris County after three days of Early Voting in Person. I just don’t see it getting any better over the next twelve days.

According to the Trib poll, the closest statewide race is with the Dem candidate that isn’t on the campaign trail. Here is from the Trib:

“The drama of the outcome is not who wins, but what the margin will be,” said Jim Henson, co-director of the poll and head of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin. “Wendy Davis has not led in a single poll in this race.”

Abbott has the support of 54 percent of likely voters to Davis’ 38 percent.

Among men, Abbott holds a 61-32 lead in this survey. And he leads by 2 percentage points — 48 to 46 — among women.

Abbott leads among likely voters who dropped out of high school all the way up to those with post-graduate degrees. Davis leads with voters who said they never attend church services, but Abbott leads with every group that did, no matter how frequently or infrequently. With Anglo voters, he holds a 62 percent to 31 percent advantage. Davis leads 75 to 19 among black voters and narrowly — 48 to 46 — among Hispanic voters.

“It should be a really interesting, contentious race,” said Daron Shaw, a government professor at UT-Austin and co-director of the poll. “And yet, it doesn’t seem to have penetrated the public consciousness. Certainly, nothing down-ballot has.”

Most of the statewide races are not as close as this one, the poll found — and Republican candidates hold the lead in each one.

Republican Dan Patrick has a comfortable 52 percent to 35 percent lead over Democrat Leticia Van de Putte in the race for lieutenant governor.

U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican seeking re-election, polled well ahead of his opponents, with 57 percent saying they will support him. Democrat David Alameel has the support of 31 percent of the respondents.

In the race for attorney general, Republican Ken Paxton has 54 percent to Democrat Sam Houston’s 34 percent.

State Sen. Glenn Hegar, a Republican, is 15 percentage points ahead of Democrat Mike Collier, a Houston accountant, in the race for comptroller. Hegar has 49 percent to Collier’s 34 percent.

George P. Bush, whose famous political name scared other Republicans out of the primary for land commissioner, holds an 18 percentage point lead over Democrat John Cook, a former El Paso mayor, in that race. He has 50 percent and Cook had 32 percent.

The contest for agriculture commissioner almost sounds close by comparison, with Republican Sid Miller, a state representative, at 47 percent, and Democrat Jim Hogan, a political newcomer who has not actively campaigned, at 35 percent.

With 48 percent, Republican Ryan Sitton leads the pack in the race for an open seat on the Texas Railroad Commission, followed by Democrat Steve Brown at 34 percent.

Name the 2013 World Serious MVP?

Here is what my friend Robert Miller just tweeted:

Robert D. MIller ‏@Robert_Miller 3h3 hours ago
Turn out the lights, the party’s over. UT/TT Poll: Abbott Holds Commanding Lead Over Davis http://trib.it/1FF7ey5 via @TexasTribune #tx2014

After three days of Early Voting in Person in Harris County, 61,140 have shown up versus 79,648 after three days in 2010. This is not good in my opinion.

David Ortiz of course was the World Serious MVP last year.

KC tied it up last night.

Read Full Post »