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Archive for July 1st, 2013

One of Commentary’s favorite movie quotes is from “Godfather, II” when Rocco says about whacking Hyman Roth it would be “difficult, not impossible.”

That’s kind of my thought regarding 2014 and the chances of winning statewide in 2014 instead of waiting for osmosis to do the job in 2020 or beyond.  There is such a thing as the GOP in Texas overplaying their hand.   Commentary mentioned last week the GOP’s effort to stop immigration reform and the Latino vote.  The GOP isn’t invincible.

Another favorite movie quote is from “Field of Dreams” and Shoeless Joe saying "if you build it, he will come.”

Commentary caught State Sen. Wendy Davis on “Meet the Press” and “This Week” yesterday as she continues to get national media run.  In my humble opinion she’s prime time.

A Politico piece this past Friday said Team Davis was reviewing their options.  Here are parts:

A statement to POLITICO Friday from Matt Angle, director of the Democratic political firm Lone Star Project and a Davis strategist, provided more clarity about a potential statewide bid — and it could come sooner than later.

“Right now, she and her team, in collaboration with the Lone Star Project, are looking very closely at the dynamics in Texas and the circumstances coming together for 2014,” Angle wrote.

“Working closely with the Lone Star Project, Senator Davis’ team is pulling together the information needed in terms of financial commitments and voter attitudes to make an informed decision on statewide prospects,” he added. “Certainly, the events over the last week or so show a groundswell in Texas. We have to see if it all adds up to a statewide campaign.”

Here is the entire Politico piece.

The Rays are in town for four though the Fourth.  Name their Triple A affiliate?

Kuffer has a good take on Sen. Davis and her chances statewide here.

This past weekend Ross Ramsey of the Texas Tribune assessed the chances of a Davis run for governor in 2014.  I have pulled a few of his lines:

She would almost certainly lose.

And:

Davis would probably be defeated in a statewide race.

And:

A bettor would have to go with the Republicans.

And:

But if she doesn’t run for governor now, it’s not because it’s a tough time for Democrats — it’s because she doesn’t want to be governor. She’ll never get a better shot.

And how about this:

Vexing the Republicans, frankly, is a quality she shares with none of the Democrats who have run for governor of Texas since Ann Richards: She galvanizes her supporters and makes the other team crazy. Garry Mauro, Tony Sanchez Jr., Chris Bell and Bill White had varying combinations of money, experience, skill and leadership ability. Together, they had almost enough charisma for one candidate, which made them easier for Texans to disregard. Mauro got 31.2 percent of the vote; Sanchez got 40 percent; Bell, with two major independent candidates also in the race, got 29.8 percent; and White got 42.3 percent.

Here is the entire Ross Ramsey piece.

The Chron also gave some run to 2014.  It is only available to subscribers so here are parts:

A short-term victory for Texas Democrats: doubtless. But that obscures a more important question: Will these events dramatically hasten the day when deep red Texas is once again a politically competitive state? Or is Democratic talk of a "purple" Texas as soon as 2014 an early-summer fantasy fueled by the euphoria of the past week?

Southern Methodist University political scientist Cal Jillson warns Democrats not to be swept away by "Wendy-mania."

"The events of the past week have certainly amped up the energy in Texas politics, but the changes required to turn Texas purple, let alone blue, will still be a decade or more in coming," Jillson said.

Indeed, a Houston Chronicle analysis of election data from 2000 to 2012 found that demographic shifts toward an ever-increasing minority population will only take Democrats so far. The study, conducted last November, found that if current demographic and voting trends continue, Texas will become a politically competitive state in 2020 and a true toss-up in 2024.

The study assumes no spike in registration or turnout among Texas Latinos or a shift among minority voters either away from or toward the GOP. It also assumes that independent swing voters will not dramatically shift from their current Republican leanings.

And:

"Democrats should save their champagne for New Year’s because there’s no reason for them to celebrate," said Vincent Harris, a GOP consultant who directed the social media efforts of Ted Cruz’s 2012 U.S. Senate campaign.

Harris said the week’s events "made a star out of Wendy Davis," but he added that it also "galvanized the large pro-life community in the state and Texas conservatives like hadn’t been done since Ted Cruz’s election."

And:

"Lots of very red states – Georgia, Mississippi, Montana – elect the occasional Democrat," said Jillson, "so it is possible in Texas, too."

Commentary thinks Sen. Davis would beat Guv Dude. 

Let me repeat what Rodd Ramsey said:

But if she doesn’t run for governor now, it’s not because it’s a tough time for Democrats — it’s because she doesn’t want to be governor. She’ll never get a better shot.

"If you build it, he will come.”  Stay tuned!

Speaking of baseball movies, the Durham Bulls are the Rays’ Triple A affiliate of course.

Commentary snagged foul ball numero 5 Saturday night.

Just in case you are wondering, we have five interleague games remaining on the schedule.  We go to San Luis for two next week and host the Reds for three in September.

We’re a game over the halfway point in the season.  We’re making way too many errors.  We lost two this weekend because of errors.

 

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