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Archive for November 1st, 2010

“I get the news I need on the weather report. I can gather all the news I need on the weather report.”

My old pal Robert Miller might want to go work for the Weather Channel if he ever gets tired of lobbying.  Here is what he put out this morning.  It is called “Eye of the Hurricane.”

The early voting edge of the voter hurricane roared ashore over the past two weeks with a red storm surge.  Early voting ended on Friday and the polls do not open again until tomorrow at 7 a.m.  Today we are in the calm of the eye and the waters have receded until tomorrow when the back side of the storm slams ashore.  Although any damage estimates are preliminary, reports from the field have come in.

I have looked at early voting data in Harris, Dallas and Tarrant counties.  In Harris, early voting was heavier in Republican boxes than Democratic boxes.  See https://camposcommunications.wordpress.com/2010/10/29/another-poll-and-an-unscientific-take-through-day-11/ and  http://www.bigjolly.com/sections/harris-county/535-harris-county-early-voting-day-12-its-a-wrap.htmlDerek Ryan of Ryan Data & Research examined the early voters in Harris, Dallas and Tarrant and identified whether they had a Republican primary voting history or a Democratic primary voting history.  In each of the competitive races in Houston and DFW, there were more voters with a Republican voting history than a Democratic voting history.

I have been tracking the statewide races and 30 competitive Texas House races – 23 Democratic incumbents and 7 Republican.  Looking at the early vote, final polls and recent campaign finance reports, I see the following impact from the front side of the storm:

Swept out to sea:  Mayor White and the Democratic statewide candidates.

Sitting on the roof with water still rising:  State Reps. Stephen Frost; Joe Heflin; Abel Herrero; Mark Homer, Carol Kent, Diana Maldonado; Robert Miklos, Joe Moody; Patrick Rose; Kristi Thibaut; Chris Turner; and Allen Vaught.   Some will survive – many may not.

Sitting on the stairs, water on the first floor, but hopeful that it won’t reach the second:  Valinda Bolton; Ellen Cohen; Jim Dunnam; Jim McReynolds;  Paula Pierson; Veronica Gonzales Toureilles; and Hubert Vo.  Most, if not all, will survive.

Sandbags appear to be holding back the surge: Doc Anderson; Joe Driver; Kirk England; Pete Gallego; Linda Harper Brown; Donna Howard; Ken Legler; and Solomon Ortiz, Jr.

Safe and sound:  Dwayne Bohac; Tim Kleinschmidt; and Will Hartnett.

The key for the Democrats is their election day turnout.  Republicans came out in droves in early voting.  If the Democrats do not close the gap tomorrow, Texas Democratic casualties from this voter storm will increase from a punishing net loss of five seats up to a catastrophic net loss of eleven.

*This is the fourth installment of the storm series:  A Hurricane Approaches; Red Tide Rising; The Skies Opened Up; Eye of the Hurricane; and Aftermath.  All descriptions are allegorical, refer to candidacies as opposed to individuals, and are in no way intended to trivialize the destructive hurricanes that strike the Gulf Coast.

Let’s see if Al Roker, err Robert Miller is right or wrong.

The Giants last won a World Serious in 1954.  What is the most memorable image of the 1954 World Serious?

Early Voting in Person in Harris County was at 392,536 as compared to 678,312 in 2008.

In 2008, Kingwood was 3.9% of the total (678,312 in person) Early Vote for Harris County, this year they were 4.6% (of 392,536).

In 2008, Clear Lake was 3.3% of total county Early Vote, this year they were 4.9%.

In 2008, West Gray was 5.3% of total county Early Vote, this year they were 6.4%.

In 2008, Tracy Gee was 3.1% of total county Early Vote, this year they were 3.2%.

In 2008, Acres Home was 3.6% of total county Early Vote, this year they were 2.8%.

In 2008, Palm Center was 2.3% of total county Early Vote, this year they were 2%.

In 2008, Ripley was 1% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were .9%.

In 2008, Moody Park was 1.6% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were 1.3%.

In 2008, HCC was 1.5% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were 1.1%.

In 2008, 126-C in Champions Forest was 4.6% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were 5.2%.

In 2008, Ponderosa (Riddle’s district) was 3.1% of total county Early Vote.  Through yesterday they were 2.9%.

Of course, we’re still learning about voting early in person.  At first glance however, it looks like the GOP areas are bit more enthused here in Harris County – at least through Early Voting in Person.

There was a bit of an increase with African American and Latino Early Voters in the last few days but I still don’t have a good feeling about where things are headed.  The local Dem Party better have a kick-arse GOTV program for African American and Latino voters tomorrow. 

The Willie Mays catch of course of the towering drive to right center by Tribe first baseman Vic Wertz in the eighth inning of Game One which still rates as probably one of the greatest catches in the history of the MLB.

It looks like it is going to rain here tomorrow.  The bad news is it could dampen turnout.  The good news is it will be easier to stick signs in the ground at the polling locations.  The Harris County GOP Chair is talking kind of boldly in the Chron today:  Check it out.

Commentary doesn’t do spin.  It will be interesting to see how the Dem Party spins stuff on Wednesday. 

Congrats go to Pam-In-Charge and the ‘Stros for teaming up with the Rockets and getting their own TV network that will be up and running in a couple of years and that’s all I have from The Yard.

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