Everyone’s Opinion

The way I see it, we have around 33 days of hearing everybody’s opinion on what may happen in the H-Town Mayoral Run-off. Heck, we’re already hearing them. I don’t have a problem with that but would folks please disclose who they are supporting or endorsing or helping before they hand out a take.

Who’s going to vote in the run-off? What are the GOPers going to do and will they even show up? Who is going to raise the most money? How much of a difference will money advantages make? What is the Chron E-Board going to do? Does CM James Rodriguez weigh in? Will African American voter turnout increase? Will someone tell Latino voters that there is an election and will they show up? Where do CM Peter Brown’s voters go to? Where do Roy Morales’ voters go to? Who votes early? Who votes on E-day? Who does Peter endorse? Who does Roy endorse? Will GOP heavyweights take sides? Will more voters show up in Round 2? Who cares?

I will say this. There are only a little over 8,000 votes and 4.6 percentage points between the two run-off contenders. Commentary continues to stay on the sidelines.

Speaking of multiple analyses, UH’s Tatcho has revised his Latino turnout results: Parker 28%, Brown 25%, Morales 24%, Locke 19%, other 5%. Hector has Latino turnout at: Brown 29%, Morales 27%, Parker 25%, Locke 14%, other 5%. Greg has Latino turnout going by neighborhoods: Brown 26 – 27%, Locke 15 – 28%, Morales 19 – 24%, Parker 21 – 31%. The Chron has Latino turnout going: Brown 31%, Parker 27%, Morales 26%, Locke 13%.

Commentary has to disagree with all of them. That wasn’t a Latino turnout. That was a Latino focus group that showed up on Election Day.

Meanwhile, Commentary and MariGirl went to the Gene Locke Latino Lunch this past Friday and came away very impressed. It was a standing room only crowd at a packed East End restaurant – probably close to 200 Latino folks showed up including electeds, former electeds, precinct judges, business owners, professionals, civic leaders, and activists. There was a lot of excitement and energy in the room. If the Gene Locke campaign can build on what was in that room, they could rack up some margins in December. Stay tuned!

The ‘Stros website is getting ready for next season by letting us know that we will be celebrating 45 years of being called the ‘Stros. That’s 45 years of ‘Stros after being first named the Colt 45s – cool.

 

Technorati Tags: Marc Campos,Campos Communications,Latino politics,Texas Latino Politics,Latino Voter turnout and analysis,Houston Politics,Houston Elections,Houston City Election Results,Gene Locke,Annise Parker,Peter Brown,Roy Morales,Houston Mayoral Race,Houston Astros,Major League Baseball

Pitiful Turnout

The buzz among some Latino political leaders was the pitiful Latino voter turnout this past Tuesday in the H-Town elections….tsk, tsk, tsk. Heck, this is probably the only prediction I got right. I was checking out the unofficial precinct returns and in some of the more traditional and older Latino neighborhoods, we voted in the 9% to 11% range. In the Heights, a lot of those precincts voted at around 30%. In Shepherd Park Plaza (Durham Elementary just north of Garden Oaks) they voted at 35%.  Pleasantville voted at 30%. I don’t want to hear any excuses like Latinos didn’t want to go to the polls because they thought they might get a 287(g) put on them. I’m going to recommend that the next Houston Area Latino Summit focus on Latino voter participation. For now, our “Si Se Puede” slogan has been temporarily revoked. We can’t Si Se Puede if we keep doing No Se Puede! All of us Latinos that are involved in H-Town politics ought be hanging our heads in shame right now. Latino power my arse!

Hector’s preliminary analysis of 90% plus Anglo boxes had the vote going 32% for Controller Annise Parker, 31% for Roy Morales, 22% for Peter Brown, and 12% for Gene Locke. His analysis of African American boxes had Locke getting 69%, 20% for Brown, and 9% for Parker.

UH’s Tatcho Mindiola’s quick read of hard core Latino boxes had Parker getting 23%, Brown 20%, Morales 19%, and Locke 15%.

Meanwhile, Commentary and MariGirl will be dropping by the Gene Locke Latino lunch today to snag a few free tacos.

The next few weeks should be interesting for ‘Stros fans as GM Wade figures out who will be on next year’s team. I’m thinking it will look a bit different. We will see.

 

Technorati Tags: Marc Campos,Campos Communications,Latino politics,Texas Latino Politics,Latino Voter turnout,Houston Astros,Major League Baseball,Houston Politics,Houston Elections,Texas Politics,Gene Locke,Annise Parker,Peter Brown,Roy Morales,Houston Mayoral Race,Voter turnout,Houston City Election Results

More Observations

As far as I’m concerned, H-Town will be A-OK since we have two good Dems in the runoff for mayor. Of course, like all high profile runoff races, I fully expect to see negative ads and negative mail from both sides.

Yesterday’s post E-Day coverage was about who gets what vote in the runoff. The talking heads were saying that Controller Annise Parker would get the Anglo liberal vote and Gene Locke would get the African American vote. Where do GOPers go? Where do Latinos go?

We know that both Parker and Locke will have to make serious overtures to GOP voters. If this race ends up being close, and if one of the campaigns invests in a serious Latino voter outreach effort and the other doesn’t, well then that could end up being the difference.  So far neither seemed posed to go directly after the Latino vote – no se puede!  Stay tuned!

H-Town CM Toni Lawrence said yesterday that she won’t be running against Harris County Commissioner Jerry Eversole in the 2010 GOP Primary which means she will be spending a lot of time helping the GOP candidate for her city council seat – drats!

By the time we end up voting on December 12, filing for the primaries will already be underway – interesting.

Well the Yankees snagged their 27^th World Serious title last night. So we’re done with MLB for now until Opening Day 2010 which happens to be five months from today (April 5) at The Yard against Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants.

 

Technorati Tags: Marc Campos,Campos Communications,Latino politics,Texas Latino Politics,Houston Astros,Major League Baseball,Houston Politics,Houston Elections,Gene Locke,Annise Parker,Houston Mayoral Race,Harris County GOP,Texas Politics

Observations Only

Unofficially, it looks like only 178,594 voters participated in our city elections or only 19.1%. That is not good.

I thought CM Peter Brown would make the runoff. What do I know?

I thought CM Pam Holm would make the runoff for City Controller. That means that Bethel Nathan fella won’t be cracking on CM Ron Green but don’t be surprised if M.J. Khan’s folks go after Green and his IRS issues.

I didn’t think Roy Morales would do that well. Heck, nobody thought he would do that well.

Of the Chron’s picks, the only ones they missed were Hermann Litt, HCC’s Olmos Guzman, and the HCC Spring Branch Annexation.

Speaking of, it looks Jerome got his pic in today’s Chron.

Until I get a precinct by precinct breakdown, there is really no use in trying to analyze the results.

I’m interested in seeing how Controller Annise Parker and Gene Locke get to the winner’s circle.

I didn’t get my arse handed to me yesterday – whew!

Maybe this evening I can settle back, relax, and watch Game 6 of the World Serious live from New Yankee Stadium.

 

Technorati Tags: Marc Campos,Campos Communications,Latino politics,Texas Latino Politics,Houston Astros,Major League Baseball,Houston Politics,Houston Elections,Houston Mayoral Race,Gene Locke,Annise Parker,Peter Brown,Houston City Controller’s race

Vote, Vote, Vote, Vote

The good thing about what happens after 7 pm tonight is that the spinning stops. You win, lose or are in a runoff. It’s scoreboard time.

Commentary, Dante, J. Dominic, and Jake have all voted early.

Commentary did a USA Today and Fox 26 interview yesterday on my takes on the H-Town mayoral contest and HISD District 1 trustee candidate Anna Eastman.

I didn’t get any last minute Peter Brown mailers yesterday. I also don’t know if I’ll get my arse handed to me this evening.

If CM Sue Lovell is forced into a runoff, I wonder if she and Roy Malonson will mud wrestle all the way to the polls.

Well it looks like we will know who is in the mayoral runoff before we get a World Serious champ as the Phillies forced a Game Six that will be played Wednesday evening at New Yankee Stadium.

 

Technorati Tags: Marc Campos,Campos Communications,Latino politics,Texas Latino Politics,Houston Astros,Major League Baseball,HISD School Board elections,Anna Eastman,Houston Politics,Houston Elections,Houston Mayoral Race,Sue Lovell,Peter Brown

Tomorrow, Tomorrow

I guess there is nothing else to day about tomorrow’s election that hasn’t already been said. The fact that there were a lot of undecided voters in the mayoral race so late in the campaign is probably an indication that a lot of folks just weren’t impressed with the candidates and their campaigns. Personally, I’m disappointed that the campaigns neglected directly engaging the Latino voter. Maybe in the expected runoff, that will change. The Kyle Johnston Early Vote Report says Latinos only make up 9% of the vote so far…tsk, tsk, tsk.

I wonder if I’ll get any last minute Peter Brown mailers today.  I wonder if I’ll get my arse handed to me tomorrow.

Best Halloween Costume of the Year goes to NBC News’ Lester Holt for his Susan Boyle gear – freaky.

Former ‘Stro Brad Lidge suffered another meltdown last night as the Yankees look to become World Serious champions this evening.

 

Technorati Tags: Marc Campos,Campos Communications,Latino politics,Texas Latino Politics,Houston Politics,Houston Elections,Houston Mayoral Race,Houston Astros,Major League Baseball

Carol Alvarado’s BD Party and Peter the Great Spender

We welcome all good folks to drop by State Rep Carol Alvarado’s Birthday Seafood Celebration and Fundraiser this Sunday, November 1 from 2 to 5 pm at the Bamboo Lounge, 2910 Navigation. Even if you can’t make a donation, drop on by anyway. It’ll probably be the last political event before Election Day. They have a few flat screens so you can catch the Texans while you chat about who will get into the run-off with CM Peter Brown.

The folks that are supporting H-Town mayoral candidates Controller Annise Parker and Gene Locke are not too happy with Peter spending his kazillions. Of course these same folks probably didn’t say a peep when Mayor White spent his kazillions in 2003. In fairness though, Mayor White also raised kazillions and Brown has probably only raised a kazillion. I hope this isn’t a case of ageism.

Commentary isn’t offended by Peter’s spending. I look at it as a local stimulus package. It is good to be on the sidelines.

Meanwhile, I got another version of Peter’s mail that cracks on Annise and Gene – ouch!

From the Who Gives a Rat’s Arse Dept., those Burnt Tangerine folks from Austin endorsed in the H-Town mayoral race – huh! I think I’ll ask Kuffer to interview Austin city candidates when they have their elections.

The political buzz yesterday was about CM Jolanda Jones pulling more support than her nemesis CM Sue Lovell in the Chron poll. The buzz yesterday also was about Mayor White getting involved against Peter Brown if Peter makes the run-off as we head into the final weekend so stay tuned! If I was the mayor, I would stay out of it.

The Yankees evened it up last night as the ‘Stros get ready to host a major sleepover tomorrow night – oh my!

 

Technorati Tags: Marc Campos,Campos Communications,Latino politics,Texas Latino Politics,Houston Astros,Major League Baseball,Houston Politics,Houston Elections,Texas Politics,State Representative Carol Alvarado,Gene Locke,Annise Parker,Peter Brown,Houston Mayoral Race,Sue Lovell,Council Member Jolanda Jones

Stretching the Facts and Show Me the Photo I.D.!

I guess if you have the lead, you’re going to get attacked. Some folks think the Chron has it out for CM Peter Brown and is giving run to his opponents’ claims that Peter is misleading voters. I’m not going to defend Peter. He can do that himself. I’m not going to call out the Chron. The Annise Parker campaign is saying that Brown’s charge that Parker has mismanaged the city dollars is dead wrong. Even Mayor White came to Annise’s defense. However, my friend Bill King has written that the city is not in good financial shape.

Parker in her ad cracks on using money to build stadiums. Hey, we – the voters – have had that debate three times in the last 13 years, and twice the voters have said A-OK to using the money for sports venues.

Gene Locke, in his ad takes credit for Downtown development. He can take credit but I would put about 100 folks ahead of him including Drayton, Mayor Bob, Mayor Brown, Mayor White, Pam-In-Charge, Bob Eury, State Rep Carol Alvarado, Robert Miller, Les Alexander, CM James Rodriguez, heck even Ken Lay. Last week, the Chron had a blazing headline that said the Sports Authority had done a bad deal. Gene Locke has been their lawyer and Brown hit him on this in a mailer. If Brown had been on the Sports Authority, believe me, Parker and Locke would be giving him the business.

In my book, it is just your typical charges flying in the last days of a campaign – yawn. Meanwhile, the Lovelier Wendy called me last night and said that Peter is now running an ad that zings Gene.

So we went to vote yesterday at Moody Park which is in the ‘hood and they asked for a photo I.D. – huh. Commentary always votes with my license anyway so I just whupped it right out. Folks that were with me objected and told the election officials – all Latino/Latinas and one African American – they must not have been paying attention because the bill didn’t pass. After some back and forth, I kind of whispered to my folks that go on ahead and show them the IDs because I didn’t want to get my arse run out of the polling place. They did and we all voted. Afterwards, I called the County Clerk’s office and they weren’t too happy that we had been asked to show our photo ID and were going to look into the matter. It is kind of sad that it happened down the street in the ‘hood.

KHOU-TV (Channel 11) released poll results for City Controller and the At-Large Council races and Don’t Know holds a commanding lead. For City Controller, Ron Green 12%, M.J. Khan 11%, Pam Holm 9%, and Don’t know 68%. 

At-Large One, Karen Derr 3%, Rick Rodriguez 2%, Lonnie Allsbrooks, J. Brad Batteau, Don Cook, Stephen Costello, Herman Litt, Kenneth Perkins all at 1%, Don’t know 87%.

At-Large Two, Sue Lovell 6%, Andrew Burks 4%, M. Griff Griffin 2%, Roslyn “Rozzy” Shorter 2%, and Don’t know 84%. 

At-Large Four, C.O. “Brad” Bradford 11%, Noel Freeman 2%, Deborah Shafto 2%, Curtis Garmon 0%, and Don’t know 83%. 

At-Large Five, Jolanda “Jo” Jones 11%, Jack Christie 3%, Davetta Daniels 2%, Carlos Obando 2%, and Don’t know 82%.

They all look like run-offs to me.

The fella that spray painted a swastika on the Anna Eastman sign showed us up by putting up our opponent’s sign. If I’m our opponent, I don’t know if I want to be associated with Swastika Man.

Commentary had the honor of officially getting the third beer served at the new St. Arnold Brewery yesterday evening. CM Rodriguez got Numero Uno and CM Ed Gonzalez got Numero Dos.

I got in just in time to see the Phillies put it on the Yankees. FYI – the ‘Stros won six out of eight against the Phillies this past season.

 

Technorati Tags: Marc Campos,Campos Communications,Latino politics,Texas Latino Politics,Houston City Council Elections,Houston Astros,Major League Baseball,Houston Politics,Houston Elections,Council Member James Rodriguez,Council Member Ed Gonzalez,Houston City Controller Race

Heading to the Polls

I’ll be voting early today with Bethany and I still don’t know who gets my vote for H-Town mayor. Jose and Jerome came by a couple of days ago with a Gene Locke autographed door hanger and mailer. Last night when I was putting out the trash, I saw a pickup truck pull up in front of my place and I thought my Anna Eastman sign was fixing to get snatched away. Instead it was Eric Zuniga and a buddy making a late night delivery of the Peter Brown booklet. Of course, I couldn’t recognize Eric because sometimes I don’t see too well at night.

I asked CM James Rodriguez who he and Wendy would be voting for and he said they’ll be making a game day decision.

Speaking of yard signs, some arsehole sprayed painted a swastika on an Anna Eastman sign in front of his home. Apparently a volunteer put it in the wrong yard and instead of the home owner just removing the sign he thought it would look better with a swastika on it. Commentary went over there and the fella proudly admitted his artwork and as far as he was concerned it could stay there until E-Day. I said no thanks and took the sign.

I got a mailer yesterday from the Peter Brown campaign and he hit Annise Parker and Gene pretty good. It also contained an unflattering pic of Annise. That’s politics.

Commentary will be going to the ribbon cutting ceremony of the new St. Arnold Brewery this evening – Amber Heaven – cool.

I’m OK with Brad Mills as our new skipper. At the beginning of the interview process, I told Pam-In-Charge that he would be my pick because of his resume and his coming from a championship culture. I’m glad they listened to me as the World Serious begins this evening and we might know who’s in the runoff before we have a World Serious Champion.

 

Technorati Tags: Marc Campos,Campos Communications,Latino politics,Texas Latino Politics,Houston Politics,Houston Elections,Texas Politics,Council Member James Rodriguez,Gene Locke,Annise Parker,Peter Brown,Houston Mayoral Race,Houston Astros,Major League Baseball

The KHOU-TV (Channel 11) Poll

It’s 24% for CM Peter Brown, 16% for Controller Annise Parker, 14% for Gene Locke, 5% for Roy Morales, 41% for Undecided according to the Channel 11 poll that was released last night. Peter has to be feeling good this morning and Annise and Gene have to be feeling quite nervous.

In last night’s report, here’s what the pollster, Rice’s Bob Stein, had to say: “It seems very likely that if this trend holds up, that Peter Brown will be in the runoff. The most likely opponent will be Annise Parker, but that is still very much up in the air.”

Here’s what political consultant Mustafah Tameez said in today’s Chron: “I don’t think there is or ever has been a true frontrunner in this race.”

Here’s what political consultant Keir Murray said in today’s Chron: “It’s clear that Brown has moved up, but I don’t think there’s any question that his support is soft. These candidates have really got to bust their butts … to make the finals. It’s anybody’s game.”

Here’s what Commentary said in today’s Chron: “They can’t challenge what he’s (Brown) spending on TV or mail and won’t be able to use any of their resources to attack him. They need to spend all their money trying to get their vote out … I just don’t see how he’s denied.”

In my book, Peter Brown is looking pretty good this morning. Right now it is hard for me to picture a Parker-Locke runoff.

Mark McGwire is getting back into baseball as the new Hitting Coach for the Cards. I’m OK with that as the ‘Stros may announce the skipper pick today and we have to wait until next July 9 to see the Cards at The Yard.

 

Technorati Tags: Marc Campos,Campos Communications,Latino politics,Texas Latino Politics,Houston Politics,Houston Elections,Gene Locke,Annise Parker,Peter Brown,Houston Mayoral Race,Houston Astros,Major League Baseball